Future of Europe: Which Way to Go?

At the beginning of March, the European Commission released a White Paper on the Future of Europe: Reflections and scenarios for the EU27 by 2025. The document identifies challenges in the next decade and offers 5 scenarios for the EU evolution by 2025.

Scenario 1 represents a carrying on, scenario 2 means that the EU will gradually re-centre on the Single Market, scenario 3 means that those who want more do more, scenario 4 gives the EU the possibility doing less more efficiently and last scenario 5 means that the EU can do much more together across all policy areas.

It is an appropriate format to kick off the debate on how the EU should be shaped in the next years however it is not an entirely exhausting summary of models or instruments for the future development of the EU. Scenarios do not represent anything revolutionary as these approaches already exist today in a great combination. The Member States are already in different integration stages – some are in euro area, some in Schengen Area and some are involved in enhanced cooperation. Now it is up to them to decide which way and speed to go.

For businesses, the Internal Market is an engine of the EU integration and a priority for the future development is certainly its better functioning without any barriers (Europe without barriers was the slogan of Czech Presidency back in 2009). Since its creation, globalization and digitalization have changed the Internal Market and many procedures have been automated. The importance of data has grown. Beside the current four freedoms, we need a fifth freedom which represents the free flow of data. Mobility of people, workers and service providers is needed across Europe to open more job opportunities and address the skills mismatch. In globalized era, common trade policy is important to be handled at EU level.

EU27 has a stronger voice than each of its member state and can negotiate better conditions with global players. Migration flows showed us that efficient protection of external borders is important to business. Re-setting of internal border controls is negative for businesses. The member states are now to express their will which way to go. Business wants to keep up efficient and competitive Europe with social dimension well-balanced with economic dimension. Business creates growth and jobs therefore it is crucial to create favourable conditions for its activities. If the leaders chose any of the scenarios or their mixture they will have to take into account that the administrative burden has to be reduced in all cases not only in scenario re-centring on the Single Market.

The institutions must be efficient and we have to learn from the mistakes which will better prepare us for future challenges. The most important in the debate will be the communication and openness of the institutions as well as their ability to listen to public justified requirements.