Czech Business Today
EU´s Sanctions Against Russia: No Dramatic Effect, Say Czech Economists
The impact of sanctions is not dramatic for the Czech economy in its integrity. According to the calculations of Miroslav Zámečník, advisor to the President of the Czech Chamber of Commerce, economic sanctions could reduce Czech GDP by 0.03 %.
On the other hand, sanctions could have a significant impact on those companies whose sales are dependent on Russian market. According to Karel Havlíček, chairman of the Association of SMEs and crafts CR, the impact of sanctions will be mostly indirect, i.e. the Czech export will decrease to those countries (e.g. Germany) which have important trade with Russia. “The companies will reorient their trade and it is a question, when and in what extend they will come back to Russia”, he stressed. Confidence is a very important aspect of business and it is difficult to regain it when lost. “There is also a question what will happen if the sanctions will have no effect”, points out Vilém Semerák from CERGE-EI.
The economic impact of the EU ́s sanctions against Russia was discussed by renowned economists at the European House in Prague on Oct. 23. Speakers agreed the most dramatic consequences will be or Russia and its State Treasury which is tied to the price of oil and exchange rate of Rouble to US Dollar. Helena Horská, chief economist of Raiffeisenbank explained that the impact of cheaper oil has been so far compensated by depreciation of the Rouble. Therefore the global impact on State Treasury was neutral. „The problem for Russia will appear when the price of oil will continue to decrease or when the Rouble will appreciate“, she stressed.
